Will interest rates go down in 2024?
"The economy and inflation should weaken next year, causing the Fed to lower rates," he says. "This will influence rates overall and should result in mortgage rates at, or just below, 6%." By the end of 2024, he predicts a range of 5.50%-6.00%. However, some experts think it will take longer for rates to come down.
Analysts with Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) both project that rates will fall going into 2024 and throughout next year. Fannie Mae economists expect rates to drop more quickly, falling below 6% by Q4 2024. Meanwhile, the MBA's forecast for Q4 2024 is 6.1% and 5.9% for Q1 2025.
Central Bank's Policy Rate Projections
The Bank, aiming to balance economic growth and inflation, is expected to adjust this rate as economic conditions evolve. Predictions suggest a potential decrease in the key interest rate starting in the second half of 2024, with gradual reductions thereafter.
“Five quarter-point rate cuts could take the Bank rate to 4% by the end of 2024. That's further than the Bank itself has indicated but the central bank has been consistently more hawkish than the market - perhaps for good reason.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
Other Forecasts on Interest Rates
One outlook is offered by Trading Economics, a platform specializing in economic data and analysis. According to their predictions based on recent data, Trading Economics anticipates the interest rate to descend to 4.25% in 2024 and 3.25% in 2025.
Changes to Interest Rate Projections
In the December report, CBO estimates that the federal funds rate will average 5.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 before falling to 3.7 percent by the end of 2025.
Sure, mortgage rates could fall to 3% at some point, but chances are that's not going to happen anytime soon. Moreover, waiting for rates to drop before you buy your home could backfire. Instead, consider buying your house now and refinancing your mortgage when rates improve.
Perhaps, we will see three-year mortgage rates closer to 5.25 per cent by year-end 2024. As for five-year fixed rates, the rate is now around 6.2 per cent. The five-year Canada bond yield is 3.23 per cent. The spread between those numbers is 2.97 per cent, very wide historically.
The average two-year fixed rate mortgage is currently 5.93 per cent, according to Moneyfacts. That compares to 5.54 per cent for five-year fixes. Those with the biggest deposits or with larger equity stakes in their home can also do much better when fixing for five years, rather than two years.
How long will interest rates stay high?
The latest yield curve from the BoE forecasts a cut in interest rates in quarter 2 of this year. But it's clear this higher for longer interest rate environment is here to stay. Data shows interest rates will remain above 3% well into 2027.
But we expect the Fed will begin cutting rates in March 2024—bringing the federal-funds rate to 3.75%–4.00% by the end of 2024. We expect the Fed to continue cutting until early 2026, ultimately bringing the federal-funds rate down by over 300 basis points.
| Date | BoC Rate | 5-Year Fixed |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | 4.25% | 4.49% |
| 2025-06-30 | 3.75% | 4.41% |
| 2025-12-31 | 3.5% | 4.39% |
| 2026-06-30 | 3.25% | 4.41% |
The market consensus on the mortgage interest rate forecast in Canada is for the Central Bank to hold rates at 5% in March, then cut by 0.25% on April 10 with a full 1% of cuts in 2024, however this consensus is already starting to change.
Experts are now predicting that we will likely see gradual rate cuts starting in Q2 of 2024 that will continue throughout year-end. Rate cuts can accelerate if the Federal Reserve pivots to a more dramatic drop as the BoC will have to align to keep the Canadian Dollar affordable for business stateside.
Mortgage rates are going to stay above 6% through 2025, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs. Goldman said the decline in mortgage rates should offer marginal improvements in housing affordability. The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.62% last week after hitting a cycle-high of 7.8%.
The latest Monetary Policy report says rates are expected to remain around 5.25% until autumn 2024 and then decline gradually to 4.25% by the end of 2026. The future of interest rates depends significantly on how quickly inflation drops – while wage growth and unemployment also play a factor.
McBride shares that while the high-rate environment will persist, rates will ease for most borrowers in 2024. Increased competition between lenders may help drivers secure a good rate. However, he warns, “don't expect auto loan rates to fall enough to offset the increases we've seen over the past couple of years.”
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The National Association of Realtors expects mortgage rates will average 6.8% in the first quarter of 2024, dropping to 6.6% in the second quarter, according to its latest Quarterly U.S. Economic Forecast. The trade association predicts that rates will continue to fall to 6.1% by the end of the year.
Inflation and Fed hikes have pushed mortgage rates up to a 20-year high. 30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to somewhere between 5.8% and 6.1% in 2024. Instead of waiting for rates to drop, homebuyers should consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition next year.
What is the prime rate forecast for 2024?
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| December 31, 2024 | 3.50% |
| September 30, 2024 | 5.75% |
| June 30, 2024 | 5.75% |
| March 31, 2024 | 5.75% |
"All FOMC members believe that rates will be stable or higher through 2023 before slowly coming down in 2024–2025 to settle at a comfortable 2.5% for the longer-term," she says.
Inflation has been up in some categories and made rates move more upward than downward. Rates came down at the end of 2023 but the most recent Fed meeting should sign that there won't be any rate cuts until summer 2024.
Mortgage rates change all the time. So a good mortgage rate could look drastically different from one day to the next. Right now, good mortgage rates for a 15-year fixed loan generally start in the high-5% range, while good rates for a 30-year mortgage typically start in the mid-6% range.
Based on recent data, Trading Economics predicts a rise to 5% in 2023 before falling back down to 4.25% in 2024 and 3.25% in 2025.
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