After three years of extreme volatility, commodities prices are set to broadly stabilise in 2024. However, adverse weather conditions, escalating geopolitical tensions and soaring shipping costs are among the risks to watch.
EIU’s report provides businesses with foresight of the global trends and threats to watch throughout the year.
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Topics included in this report:
Why prices for base metals will take a pause, despite decarbonisation investment
How El Niño will continue to affect the soft commodities outlook
The security of global commodity supply chains amid geopolitical tensions
Forecasts for high energy prices amid still-tight markets
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Since mid-2023, however, the World Bank's index of commodity prices has remained essentially unchanged. Assuming no further flare-up in geopolitical tensions, the Bank's forecasts call for a decline of 3% in global commodity prices in 2024 and 4% in 2025.
Iron ore will average more than $100 a ton this year as the worldwide market remains tight, despite China's property crisis hurting the outlook for steel demand there, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.
Soft demand and sufficient supply of major food commodities to cap prices. Food commodity prices are expected to continue a downward trend over 2024, owing to moderate global demand and adequate supplies of major crops, particularly corn and soybean.
Commodity prices are expected to fall by 21 percent this year and remain mostly stable in 2024. The expected decline in prices for 2023 represents the sharpest drop since the pandemic. Energy prices in 2023 are expected to be 23 percent lower than 2022 on average and remain broadly stable in 2024.
A commodity's futures price is based on its current spot price, plus the cost of carry during the interim before delivery. Cost of carry refers to the price of storage of the commodity, which includes interest and insurance as well as other incidental expenses.
Morgan Stanley's bottom-up analysis forecasts a modest 2.1% growth in steel demand for 2024. However, this growth, when coupled with increasing capacity, is expected to result in falling steel prices. Along these lines, here are the 3 stocks to avoid amid fears that steel prices may fall in 2024.
According to the World Steel Association's October 2023 Short Range Outlook Report, we can expect to see global steel demand grow 1.9% year-over-year in 2024 to reach 1,849.1 Mt, up from 1,814.5 Mt in 2023.
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Why prices for base metals will take a pause, despite decarbonisation investment
How El Niño will continue to affect the soft commodities outlook
The security of global commodity supply chains amid geopolitical tensions
Forecasts for high energy prices amid still-tight markets
